Canada's Housing Crisis: The Urgent Need for Skilled Tradespeople

📅 2 weeks ago

As Canada confronts its housing crisis with renewed urgency, a recent report highlights the critical need for a skilled workforce to meet ambitious housing targets, emphasizing the importance of apprenticeship completion rates.

Canada has finally started to tackle its housing crisis with the urgency it demands. In Ontario, recent policy initiatives indicate a renewed commitment to increasing the housing supply. At the federal level, there is an increasing acknowledgment that enhancing supply is vital for restoring affordability in the housing market. These initiatives are commendable, as policymakers recognize the magnitude of the challenge and have taken significant steps to address it. However, there is a stark reality that cannot be overlooked: the ambitious housing targets set by governments will not be met without a skilled workforce to construct them. The success of housing policies hinges on the availability of skilled tradespeople such as carpenters, electricians, plumbers, bricklayers, and heavy equipment operators. If skilled trades are not available, housing policies risk becoming mere plans without practical implementation.
This is why the findings of a recent report titled "Are We Ready to Build Canada? A Behavioural Analysis of Canada’s Construction Talent Pipeline and Skills Training Policy" should serve as a crucial wake-up call. The report was authored for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON) by Nathaniel Barr, a creativity professor and senior advisor at Sheridan College; Michael McNamara, a creativity professor and director of the Community Ideas Factory at Sheridan; and James K. Stewart, an economist and senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute. According to the report, Canada’s challenge with apprenticeships is not primarily an economic issue; rather, it is a design issue. This conclusion may come as a surprise. For years, governments have responded to labour shortages by increasing funding, promoting skilled trades careers, and creating programs to attract more apprentices. While these initiatives have succeeded in increasing registrations, the problem lies in the completion rates.
The report reveals a concerning statistic: apprenticeship completion rates in Canada have stagnated at approximately 20% of registrations since 2013. This means that four out of five individuals who embark on the apprenticeship journey do not finish their training within the existing system. To illustrate, if a university had a graduation rate of only one in five students, it would be viewed as a crisis requiring immediate action. Yet this troubling reality has persisted in the skilled trades for over a decade. The implications of low completion rates extend well beyond the apprenticeship system itself. Each apprentice who fails to complete their training represents a missed opportunity to fortify Canada’s workforce. A shortage of certified tradespeople translates into fewer homes being built, longer timelines for infrastructure projects, and diminished economic productivity.
The urgency of the situation is further exacerbated by demographic trends. By 2028, over 700,000 skilled trades workers are expected to retire. In the construction sector alone, around 15% of the workforce is projected to retire by 2034. While the current labour market may have alleviated some workforce pressures, policymakers should not become complacent. Many workers have already exited the residential construction industry due to current market conditions. If housing demand rebounds and construction activity accelerates, the industry could face severe labour shortages.
Traditionally, the focus has been heavily on recruitment, under the assumption that if enough individuals enter apprenticeship programs, completion rates will naturally improve. However, the report challenges this assumption. Drawing on behavioural science, the authors argue that apprenticeship systems are designed based on unrealistic expectations about how individuals make decisions and overcome challenges. Policymakers often assume that individuals will act rationally, remain motivated, and navigate obstacles independently until they complete their training. However, human behaviour rarely aligns with these assumptions. Individuals face competing demands from work and family, may feel overwhelmed by complexity, struggle with uncertainty and self-doubt, procrastinate, and abandon their plans when confronted with significant challenges. These behaviours are not flaws; they are normal aspects of human nature.
Behavioural science explores these realities and aims to design systems that accommodate them. This insight has significant implications for apprenticeship policy. If apprentices struggle due to complicated application processes, those processes should be simplified. If critical training stages create bottlenecks, targeted support should be provided. If participants lose momentum during lengthy training periods, interventions to maintain engagement should be developed. If social isolation contributes to attrition, mentoring programs that foster connections and accountability should be established. In essence, apprenticeship systems need to be designed around actual human behaviour rather than idealized expectations.
This does not imply that funding is unimportant. Continued investments in apprenticeship programs, labour market forecasting, and skills training remain essential. Governments should also continue their efforts to attract young Canadians to the skilled trades. However, funding alone will not rectify a problem rooted in system design. Policymakers must prioritize apprenticeship completion rates as a central performance measure. Success should not merely be defined by the number of individuals entering the system, but by the number who emerge as certified tradespeople.
Canada is poised to embark on one of the most ambitious building agendas in generations. The ability to construct more homes is directly linked to the capacity to train, support, and retain a greater number of skilled tradespeople. To build more homes, we must first develop a better system for those who will build them.

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