BuildForce Canada Releases Construction Outlook for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick

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BuildForce Canada has published its annual reports on the construction sector outlook for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, indicating diverging trends for residential and non-residential sectors from 2026 to 2035.

BuildForce Canada has unveiled its annual Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward reports, which focus on the residential and non-residential construction sectors in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick for the forecast period spanning from 2026 to 2035. The Daily Commercial News is expected to provide more detailed provincial breakdowns across Canada as well as national insights in forthcoming articles.
In Halifax, the report highlights that while residential construction in Nova Scotia may experience a slowdown over the next decade, overall construction activity is anticipated to grow due to significant major projects. The outlook indicates that residential construction investment will start the forecast period at a peak, with a resurgence expected in 2026. However, as the decade progresses, particularly into the early 2030s, levels are projected to decline as population growth slows and the demand for multi-unit residential structures wanes. By 2032, renovation activity is expected to outpace new housing investment.
Non-residential construction is poised for sustained growth until 2029. The report notes that investment in the sector has been on the rise since 2023, fueled by advancements in engineering construction along with industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings. Notably, investment in ICI construction is predicted to reach its zenith in 2029, supported by ongoing projects such as the QEII Halifax Infirmary Site, the Cape Breton Regional Hospital Development, and various health care facilities. Meanwhile, investment in engineering construction is forecast to trend toward a new peak leading up to 2035, spurred by planned and ongoing work on critical mining and utility projects.
This forecast suggests a 22 percent increase in non-residential employment by 2035, compared to 2025 levels, which will counterbalance a 15 percent decline in employment within the residential sector. Duncan Williams, president and CEO of the Construction Association of Nova Scotia, emphasized the significance of major projects in shaping workforce expectations, stating, "While major projects can significantly impact workforce outlooks, we are confident that these are solid indicators of where the market and workforce are going, based on what we know today."
He also pointed out the need for strengthening efforts in attracting, training, and retaining workers in the face of a projected retirement of 8,200 workers, which constitutes 21 percent of the 2025 labor force in Nova Scotia. The anticipated influx of about 7,200 first-time entrants from the local population may result in a potential shortfall of approximately 1,300 construction workers.
In New Brunswick, BuildForce reports that construction activity saw modest growth in 2025, driven by a new high in the residential sector, while investment in the non-residential sector remained subdued. The ongoing tariff disputes between Canada and the U.S. significantly impacted provincial growth, particularly the tariffs and countervailing duties on softwood lumber, leading to a marked contraction in exports and posing risks to economic growth in 2026.
The outlook for the residential and non-residential sectors in New Brunswick is expected to diverge over the forecast period. The residential sector is beginning the forecast period at elevated levels, but demand is projected to decline throughout the decade, with housing starts expected to decrease by 56 percent below 2025 levels by 2035. In contrast, renovation activity in the residential sector is predicted to strengthen steadily, surpassing new housing as the dominant force in residential construction investment by 2028.
Non-residential construction is anticipated to remain a primary driver of growth, with significant investments expected to commence in 2027, marking the start of core construction on the Mactaquac Hydro Dam Refurbishment project, alongside NB Power’s broader capital program. This surge in large-scale engineering projects, along with robust construction in institutional and government facilities—including a new RCMP detachment in Salisbury, renovations on the Fredericton Courthouse, and the establishment of a new Correctional Centre in Minto—will keep non-residential investment elevated well into the mid-2030s.
Irwin Bess, executive director of BuildForce Canada, remarked on the potential for even more growth, noting, "There is a significant number of major projects that BuildForce is tracking for New Brunswick, but which have not been factored into this year’s forecast. These include small modular reactors, mines, renewable energy, and energy-transmission projects. If any or several of these reach a final investment decision, they could have a significant impact on growth in the industry."
By 2035, the demand for residential construction labor in New Brunswick is expected to decline by nearly 24 percent compared to 2025 levels, while non-residential employment is projected to increase by approximately 13 percent. Overall industry employment is anticipated to decrease by 1,500 workers by 2035. The province is also set to witness the retirement of around 6,600 workers, or 20 percent of its 2025 labor force, by 2035. The expected recruitment of approximately 6,400 first-time entrants from the local population may lead to a surplus of about 1,300 construction workers in the province.
John-Ryan Morrison, executive director of the Construction Association of New Brunswick, emphasized the need for the industry to manage the evolving mix of construction activities throughout the next decade. He noted, "While residential construction is projected to moderate from historically high levels, non-residential construction is expected to remain strong, driven by major infrastructure, energy, and institutional projects. The opportunity will be ensuring workers can transition to where demand exists while continuing to invest in training, recruitment, and immigration strategies. With thousands of skilled workers expected to retire over the forecast period, workforce development must remain a priority for both industry and government."

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