GTA's Housing Market Sees Strong Demand for Single-Family Homes Amidst Struggles for Condos

📅 4 days ago

The Greater Toronto Area's housing market showcases a surge in single-family home sales while condo sales lag behind, highlighting the impact of the HST rebate program.

In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the housing market is experiencing a pronounced divergence in demand, primarily favoring single-family homes over condominium units. Recent statistics from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) indicate that single-family home sales have surpassed the 10-year average for the fourth consecutive month. This trend is underscored by the July report from BILD, which, in collaboration with Altus Group, revealed that total new home sales reached 1,018 units. While this marks a significant recovery from the record low observed in July 2025, it remains approximately 40% below the decade's average of 1,707 units for that month.
The single-family sector has been the primary driver of this recovery. Detached, linked, semi-detached houses, and townhouses, excluding stacked townhouses, accounted for 781 of the sales, reflecting a considerable year-over-year increase and a substantial 50% rise above the 10-year July average. In stark contrast, the condo market continues to struggle, with only 237 units sold in July. Although this represents a 40% increase from last year's dismal figures, it is still a staggering 80% below the historical monthly average.
Edward Jegg from Altus Group attributes this disparity to the eligibility criteria embedded within the rebate program, which tends to favor projects that are further along in their construction stages. "July new home sales across the GTA continued to reap the benefits of the HST rebate program led once again by the single-family sector," Jegg remarked. He noted that builders are responding to the increased demand with a consistent stream of new low-rise products, which helps maintain market stability and mitigates the typical upward pricing pressure seen in a booming market.
Supporting this narrative, the pricing data reflects the ongoing balance within the single-family market. The benchmark price for new single-family homes has decreased by 8.5% over the past year, settling at $1,362,433, even as sales figures have improved. This trend suggests that the additional supply has effectively prevented the market from overheating. Conversely, the benchmark price for condos has risen by 2.5%, now averaging $1,054,938, indicating a contrasting dynamic in the condominium sector. Both price figures are gross amounts before any HST rebates, allowing for direct comparisons with previous years.
Current inventory levels further illustrate this market balance, with a total of 18,546 units available—12,345 of which are condo apartments and 6,201 are single-family homes. This translates to a supply of 36.5 months based on the current sales pace. BILD President and CEO Dave Wilkes characterized the ongoing success of single-family homes as evidence that the rebate program is functioning as intended. "It is encouraging to see the positive momentum continuing for single-family homes in the GTA for the fourth straight month," he stated. Wilkes added that he has been in discussions with several homebuyers who have benefited from the HST rebate, expressing their satisfaction with how the program has improved affordability and facilitated new homeownership. He emphasized that such initiatives not only have a tangible impact on new home buyers but also bolster the region's economic outlook and safeguard jobs.
In a related observation, Simcoe County's sales figures for July mirrored the GTA's trend, reporting 64 single-family home sales alongside zero condo transactions. The weighted average price for single-family homes in this region was recorded at $1,044,171, further showcasing the strong preference for this type of housing amidst the ongoing challenges faced by the condo market.

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