Canada's Data Centre Capacity: A Proposed Surge Amidst Growing Opposition

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A recent government document reveals a proposed significant increase in Canada's data centre capacity, though officials clarify that actual developments may differ significantly from projections. As opposition grows against new data centres, the implications for the AI ecosystem and local communities are profound.

OTTAWA — A recently obtained document intended for Canada's federal artificial intelligence minister outlines a substantial proposed increase in the nation's data centre capacity, but government representatives have strongly contested the figures, asserting that the expected total capacity will be considerably lower. Currently, Canada possesses about 337 megawatts of AI data centre capacity, while the document indicates that over 20 gigawatts — equivalent to 20,000 megawatts — are in various stages of planning or development.
This projection was included in a presentation crafted by a government department for Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon, meant for potential international investors. The Canadian Press accessed this information through an access-to-information request. The document highlights the increasing interest in alternative locations for data centres as artificial intelligence continues to expand, potentially overshadowing existing markets.
The figure of 20 gigawatts appeared in a pitch deck prepared by Innovation, Science and Economic Development for Minister Solomon, and was signed by Associate Deputy Minister Mark Schaan. According to government records, this document was received on January 8, 2026. It states, "In response to your request for a concise slide deck on Canada’s AI ecosystem, appropriate for international investors, please find the attached product."
A statement from Solomon’s office clarified that there is no evidence the deck was utilized in external presentations. The planned data centre projects emerge amid rising community opposition across Canada. Solomon’s office noted that the 20 gigawatt figure was a snapshot of publicly announced and proposed private-sector projects, encompassing various stages of development from initial proposals to more advanced plans, and was designed to illustrate the scale of market interest at that moment.
However, the statement emphasized that not all proposed projects will advance. It further pointed out that these projects depend on multiple factors, including commercial decisions, financing, electricity availability, regulatory approvals, and engagement with provincial and municipal authorities, utilities, Indigenous communities, and local stakeholders. Solomon's office indicated that most of the proposed capacity is unlikely to come to fruition and that any projects that do proceed may do so on different timelines or scales than initially envisioned.
According to the government’s recent national AI strategy, estimates suggest that Canada will require 5.5 gigawatts of AI compute capacity for its commercial players by 2030. This demand is expected to be met primarily through large-scale operations by hyperscalers catering to both domestic and international markets. An earlier briefing note for Solomon, dated August 2025, suggested a slightly higher total for the planned data centre capacity, positing that Canada could rise to second place in the G7 with up to 22.1 gigawatts, if all proposed projects were realized. However, much of this capacity is anticipated to serve the largest U.S. technology firms.
The growing opposition to data centres has been evident in various communities across Canada. In late June, protests occurred in Vancouver against the establishment of AI data centres. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew recently rejected a massive data centre project southeast of Winnipeg, citing concerns about its environmental impact and the limited economic benefits it would provide. In Olds, Alberta, residents have expressed strong resistance to a proposed campus consisting of ten buildings with a combined capacity of 1.4 gigawatts powered by gas. In Hamilton, Ontario, a proposed data centre campus on the harbourfront has drawn significant backlash, prompting city council to consider a moratorium on new data centres. Residents have voiced worries that large data centres might burden the electricity grid, increase utility costs, and lead to noise, water pollution, and heat issues that would primarily affect local neighborhoods already facing industrial challenges.
The January pitch deck prepared for Solomon to present to international investors outlines reasons why Canada is a prime destination for new data centres, citing six existing data centre operators and available tax credits. It claims Canada benefits from a stable electricity grid powered by abundant clean energy sources at competitive prices, underpinned by reliable regulations. Most proposed data centre capacity is concentrated in Alberta. The August 2025 government document, marked as "commercially confidential," indicates that this capacity will rely predominantly on natural gas. Alberta’s AI Data Center Strategy aims to attract $100 billion in investments, with current projects totaling over 18 gigawatts, potentially supported by natural gas power plants. If 18 gigawatts were added, it could result in emissions of 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, which would account for nearly 3% of Canada’s total emissions in 2023.

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