Immigration Slowdown Poses Threat to U.S. Construction Labor Supply

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A report highlights the critical role of immigrant labor in the U.S. construction industry and the implications of a decline in immigration.

The construction industry in the United States is facing a significant labor shortage as a result of a marked decline in immigration, which threatens the availability of foreign-born tradespeople. This alarming trend is detailed in research conducted by Riordan Frost, a senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The report, titled "The Outsized Role of Immigrants in the Construction Trades," investigates the impact of foreign-born workers on the trades, their demographic profiles, and the potential repercussions of a prolonged decrease in immigration on the workforce.
Since 2013, immigrants have been the driving force behind the growth of the U.S. construction trades workforce. However, the recent findings indicate that the reduction in the influx of newcomers is jeopardizing this essential source of labor. The analysis shows that immigrants have been responsible for all net growth in the construction trades workforce since the post-recession low of 2013. Between 2013 and 2024, employment of foreign-born trades workers surged by 468,000, while the number of native-born trades workers fell by 37,000.
Frost emphasizes the dependency of the construction trades workforce on immigrant labor, stating, "The construction trades workforce, defined as skilled trades workers in the construction industry, is reliant on immigrants." In 2024, immigrants are projected to constitute 35 percent of the U.S. construction trades workforce, despite making up only 18 percent of the overall labor force. The report highlights that more than half of drywall installers and painters are foreign-born, underscoring the critical role that these workers play in the industry.
The reliance on immigrant labor has been steadily increasing over the past decade. Following a substantial decline from 6.9 million workers in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2013 due to the Great Recession, the construction trades workforce has gradually recovered to 6.2 million by 2024. However, all net employment growth in this sector since 2013 has been attributed to immigrants. The number of foreign-born trades workers has reached 2.2 million, while the native-born trades workforce has decreased from 4.1 million to 4 million, resulting in an increase in the foreign-born share of the workforce from 30 percent to 35 percent.
The growth of foreign-born workers in the trades has been particularly notable in lower-paying occupations. For instance, the share of foreign-born flooring installers increased from 41 percent to 51 percent, and painters rose from 43 percent to 53 percent between 2013 and 2024. The construction laborer segment saw the most significant employment gain during this period, with an addition of 236,000 workers, or 13 percent.
As immigration levels continue to decline sharply, the implications for the construction industry are concerning. Net international migration is expected to drop from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, and further to 321,000 in 2026 if current trends persist. This decline is significantly lower than the annual average of 1.1 million seen between 2013 and 2024.
Across nearly all U.S. metropolitan areas, the share of foreign-born trades workers has consistently exceeded their share of the overall labor force, with a median ratio of approximately two to one. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area exhibits the highest concentration, with immigrants making up 75.1 percent of trades workers compared to 50.5 percent of the region's total labor force.
This dependency on immigrant labor is especially pronounced in fast-growing housing markets. Among six metropolitan areas that issued at least 150,000 building permits from 2020 to 2024, the median foreign-born share of construction trades workers was 54 percent. In Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, which issued nearly 360,000 permits during the same period, the construction trades workforce comprised 60 percent foreign-born workers, a figure that is about 2.5 times higher than the immigrant share of the overall labor force.
The report also highlights the geographical concentration of foreign-born trades workers by country of origin. Of the 2.2 million foreign-born trades workers in 2024, 91 percent hail from Latin America, with nearly half born in Mexico. Notably, Mexico's share has decreased from 57 percent in 2013 to 48 percent in 2024, while the shares from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador have risen.
Complicating matters further is the aging workforce, with two-thirds of foreign-born trades workers having resided in the U.S. for more than a decade by 2024. Frost's report concludes that a sustained decline in immigration will have significant repercussions for the construction trades workforce, particularly within lower-wage occupations where immigrants account for more than half of all workers. The future size of the trades workforce will largely depend on the entry of native-born workers, which has been increasing among younger demographics but is decreasing overall.

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