GTA New Home Sales Show Signs of Recovery Amid Ongoing Market Challenges

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Single-family home sales in the Greater Toronto Area have exceeded the 10-year average for the second month in a row, driven by a new HST rebate program, while overall new home sales remain significantly below historical levels, particularly in the condominium sector.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is witnessing a modest recovery in its new home sales, particularly within the low-rise segment, despite ongoing challenges in the broader market. For the second consecutive month, sales of single-family homes have outstripped the 10-year average, a trend attributed to the recently enhanced HST rebate program that was rolled out in April 2026. According to the latest data released by BILD in conjunction with market intelligence firm Altus Group, a total of 830 single-family homes were sold in the GTA during May, marking a notable 26% increase over the segment's 10-year average. This figure also reflects a substantial rise compared to the same month in 2025.
However, the overall picture of new home sales in the GTA is more complex. The total number of new home sales across the region reached 1,023 units in May, representing a significant rebound from the record low experienced the previous year. Yet, this figure remains 57% below the overall 10-year average of 2,353 units for the month. This disparity is primarily driven by the condominium market, which has struggled considerably. Only 193 condo apartment units were sold in May, a staggering 89% decline compared to the 10-year average for the segment.
The HST rebate program has not had a significant impact on the high-rise market for two main reasons. First, much of the existing inventory is affected by legacy pricing structures that complicate eligibility for the rebate. Secondly, new high-rise projects are unlikely to fulfill the program’s “substantially completed” requirement within the designated timeframe. As noted by Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group, only one new condo project has been launched in the GTA so far in 2026.
On the pricing front, the benchmark price for new condo apartments has stabilized at $1,029,489, which BILD has characterized as an apparent price floor. Meanwhile, new single-family homes have a benchmark price set at $1,427,543, reflecting a 5.2% decrease over the past year. It is important to note that these figures represent gross prices and do not account for any potential HST rebate savings.
Inventory levels have also shown a concerning trend, dipping below 20,000 units for the third time in the last 24 months. As of May, the total inventory stood at 18,763 units, comprising 13,138 condo apartment units and 5,625 single-family dwellings. This inventory level translates to a supply of 32 months based on the current sales pace. However, BILD has cautioned that this number is likely to compress rapidly if sales volumes continue to rise.
There is a slight caveat within the single-family sales narrative, as May's sales figures came in just below those recorded in April. BILD's COO, Justin Sherwood, indicated that lingering uncertainties surrounding the administration of the HST rebate are likely to be contributing factors. While buyers who qualify for the rebate are not abandoning their purchasing intentions, many appear to be waiting for clearer guidance.
In Simcoe County, the trend mirrors that of the broader GTA, with 56 single-family new homes sold in May, achieving a weighted average price of $1,143,359. Notably, no condo apartment sales were reported in this region during the same timeframe.

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